The Nilambur Assembly constituency, vacant since January 13, 2025, has become the battleground for a high-stakes political contest. The seat fell vacant after sitting MLA P.V. Anwar resigned earlier this year and joined the Trinamool Congress, having previously served as an independent with LDF backing. With the general assembly elections scheduled for next year, both the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the opposition United Democratic Front (UDF) are treating this bypoll as a semifinal test of electoral strength.
Candidates and Campaign Dynamics
UDF Candidate – Aryadan Shoukath (Indian National Congress):
Son of veteran Congress leader Aryadan Mohammed, Shoukath is a former municipal chairman and an award-winning filmmaker and screenwriter. He was announced as the candidate on May 26. Although Anwar had proposed another name, the Congress high command overruled it. The UDF believes Shoukath can reclaim the constituency long held by his father.
LDF Candidate – M. Swaraj (CPI(M)):
A former MLA from Tripunithura, Swaraj brings intellectual appeal to the table. He is spearheading the LDF’s campaign to retain the unexpected victory they had previously achieved in Nilambur.
P.V. Anwar (Independent):
Having resigned from both his MLA post and the LDF alliance, Anwar is contesting again—now aligned with the Trinamool Congress. His strategy seems aimed at splitting UDF votes and maintaining relevance as an independent force.
BJP Candidate – Mohan George:
Formerly affiliated with the UDF, George hails from the local Christian farming community. The BJP hopes his candidature will divide the traditional UDF vote base.
Key Political Movements
Legacy & UDF Nostalgia:
Nilambur was Aryadan Mohammed’s stronghold for nearly three decades (1965–2016). The UDF sees Shoukath as the natural heir to this legacy and expects this emotional connection to translate into votes.
Anwar's Disruptive Potential:
It is estimated that Anwar could secure around 10% of the vote (approximately 10,000 votes), which could significantly impact the election outcome.
Support from the Muslim League & Welfare Party:
The Welfare Party’s recent support, reportedly linked to Jamaat-e-Islami, has triggered controversy. The CPI(M) accused the UDF of opportunism, while the BJP raised national security concerns.
LDF’s Core Strategy:
The combination of Swaraj’s candidature and a vigorous campaign led by CPI(M) State Secretary M.V. Govindan in rural regions has bolstered LDF’s confidence. A win here would give them momentum and morale heading into next year’s assembly polls.
Local Sentiments and Expectations
UDF insiders anticipate a victory margin of 10,000–15,000 votes for Shoukath but remain wary of the possible vote erosion due to Anwar.
The BJP, while criticizing both the LDF and UDF as self-serving, described the bypoll as an imposed distraction and termed their candidate selection a strategic move.
What Lies Ahead?
The Nilambur by-election is scheduled for June 19, 2025.
A UDF victory could reinvigorate its cadre and generate momentum ahead of the 2026 assembly elections. Conversely, an LDF win would cement its grassroots presence and reinforce its bid to return to power in the next state elections.
