The UDF is now truly feeling the sting of the so-called “Kandakashani” (thorny trouble) in the Nilambur by-election. After three successive by-election victories, the front had begun to dream of capturing the Chief Minister’s seat in the next Assembly polls. But the fourth by-election in Nilambur has now turned into a major challenge for the UDF.
The UDF was confident, expecting that P.V. Anvar—who had earlier lost to the LDF—would join their camp. Leaders like V.D. Satheesan, Sunny Joseph, and P.K. Kunhalikutty calculated that Anvar’s consistent vocal criticism of the Pinarayi government would help them secure a massive majority. However, things took a sudden turn when Anvar demanded that his nominee, V.S. Joy, be made the candidate. This demand stemmed from his lack of interest in Aryadan Shoukath as the candidate.
Under the leadership of V.D. Satheesan, the UDF decided not to yield to Anvar’s pressure. The newly appointed KPCC office bearers and president backed this decision. Yet, K. Sudhakaran, Ramesh Chennithala, and Kunhalikutty worried that alienating Anvar could cost them the election—and potentially help Pinarayi retain power. Still, the Satheesan faction stood firm, and eventually, Anvar chose to contest independently.
As Anvar continued his strong criticism of the Chief Minister, some began to believe the political winds in Nilambur were shifting in favor of the UDF. But that was not the end of the twists.
K.C. Venugopal, AICC General Secretary and a close confident of Rahul Gandhi, delivered a major blow to the UDF with a verbal gaffe. While trying to accuse the Left of using social security pensions to win over voters, he mistakenly referred to “pension” as “bribe” during a speech. As Anvar ramped up his attacks on Pinarayi, the CPI(M) and LDF seized upon this “bribe” remark as a powerful weapon against the UDF. Although Anvar tried to capitalize on the Chief Minister’s controversial remarks in Malappuram, K.C. Venugopal’s blunder disrupted all calculations.
The contest in Nilambur thus grew even more intense. Within the UDF, particularly the Muslim League, some had been waiting for an opportunity to question V.D. Satheesan’s rigid stance against accommodating Anvar. But K.C.’s slip of the tongue left them unable to either embrace or distance themselves from the situation—trapped in a political bind. Ironically, this may have brought a bit of relief to Satheesan himself.
Now, what will ultimately influence the voters' minds—Satheesan’s firm stance, Anvar’s relentless criticism of Pinarayi, or the Left's attack using the “bribe” remark? That remains to be seen in the days ahead, as all players intensify their campaigns.
Political observers are also watching closely to see how the BJP positions itself. Will it assert its strength independently or lend a hand to someone else? Regardless, unexpected verbal missteps have added an extra dose of excitement to the Nilambur contest. No matter who wins, Anvar is sure to claim that his performance was a key reason behind the final result—exactly what he hopes for.
Will the outcome of this by-election in Nilambur serve as a barometer for the upcoming local body and Assembly elections? That’s the question everyone is now asking.
