The upcoming by-election in the Nilambur Assembly constituency of Malappuram district is no longer merely a matter of addressing past lapses—it is shaping up as a strategic battle of political possibilities. For the Congress, the spotlight is on Aryadan Shoukath, with the party and the UDF camp anticipating a strong comeback through his candidature. On the other hand, the Left is maneuvering with calculated precision, seemingly ready to field the seasoned M. Swaraj as a formidable opponent.
The Return of Shoukath: Congress Eyes a Calculated Move
At a recent AICC discussion in Kozhikode, Aryadan Shoukath’s name emerged as the Congress’s likely choice. Though he had contested from Nilambur earlier, a significant shift in votes led to his defeat by P.V. Anvar in 2016. However, considering his religious and communal influence, along with his familial legacy, the party appears keen to give him another chance.
Opposition leader V.D. Satheesan’s recent remark has put an end to speculations regarding Anvar’s allegiance—he is now being openly considered part of the UDF fold.
The Left Moves Ahead with Ground-Level Campaigns
M. Swaraj, a CPM secretariat member, is reportedly leading the Left's groundwork in Nilambur. While the candidate has not been officially announced, internal consensus within the party suggests a clear direction. Many within the Left believe that Anvar betrayed the front, and the by-election is an opportunity to respond effectively. Active grassroots campaigns and vocal opposition to communal agendas highlight the Left's determined stride forward.
Between Religious Arithmetic and Political Strategy
Understanding Nilambur’s socio-religious composition is crucial for all parties involved. In a constituency where the Indian Union Muslim League has considerable influence, the Congress needs to proceed with calculated caution.
While the UDF continues to speak against the BJP’s divisive agendas, there are murmurs about whether the CPM is subtly steering the discourse toward communal considerations to gain traction. Congress, meanwhile, is banking on a candidate with both personal and familial clout—but must not forget that Aryadan Muhammad, Shoukath’s father, had also faced defeat here.
For the CPM, the challenge lies in whether their disciplined groundwork and strategic outreach, especially in the post-victory shadows of previous elections, can sway UDF supporters.
P.V. Anvar: From Equidistance to Open Alliance
By stepping away from a neutral stance between the Congress and the Left, and publicly aligning with the Congress, P.V. Anvar becomes a temporary but influential political factor in the campaign.
The Nilambur by-election is not merely a fight for a legislative seat; it is a multi-layered contest involving party influence, communal polarization, scores to be settled, and emerging political realignments. As nominations, campaigns, and speeches begin to take center stage, this is a contest that demands close observation.A lot of scores remain unsettled—Nilambur is now the stage.
